Transhumance, a millennia-old pastoral practice, has been instrumental in shaping the cultural, ecological and socioeconomic fabric of Turkey’s Mediterranean mountains while providing a range of ecosystem services. However, profound socio-economic shifts, policy constraints, and land-use changes have led to its rapid decline, triggering cascading environmental consequences. This study investigates the spatial and temporal associations between transhumance decline and land use/cover changes (LULC) along four transhumance migration routes in Turkey’s Mediterranean Mountains over the past three decades. The migration routes of transhumant goat flocks were recorded using GPS collars. Digital Elevation Model data were sourced from the U.S. Geological Survey and analyzed using ArcGIS software to produce comprehensive maps illustrating the geographical and elevational characteristics of the study area. Furthermore, CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) land cover maps derived from satellite imagery were employed to assess existing land cover and temporal shifts within the region. Through Geographic Information Systems (GIS), we conducted an in-depth analysis of land use/cover changes across the years 1990 and 2018, employing the Dynamic Degree Index to quantify the rate and extent of spatial transformations. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing, the findings reveal a loss of grasslands (− 9.96%) and shrublands (− 13.19%), while forests (+ 23.81%), agricultural land (+ 13.11%),and urban areas (+ 37.03%) expanded. Although direct causality cannot be confirmed, the spatial overlap between declining grazing areas and vegetation transitions suggests a strong association. Informal conversations with herders supported the observation that reduced grazing pressure contributed to shrub encroachment and forest expansion. These findings
underscore the necessity of holistic rangeland governance strategies that reconcile conservation imperatives with the cultural and economic sustainability of pastoral communities. Ensuring the resilience of these landscapes requires a nuanced approach that acknowledges transhumance as a dynamic socio-ecological system rather than a relic of the past.